Koizumi's LDP Wins Landslide Victory in House of Representatives Election; Ruling Coalition Captures
The Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the House of Representatives election held on September 11, while the Democratic Party of Japan suffered a crushing defeat. The LDP captured 296 seats, which, combined with the seats won by the New Komeito party, gave the ruling coalition a total of 327 seats, or over two-thirds of the House of Representatives. Katsuya Okada, president of the routed DPJ, announced his intention to step down. On the 12th Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi decided to call a special session of the Diet on the 21st to re-submit the postal-service privatization bills. The situation is such that the bills are certain to be passed. The LDP's sweeping victory means that the political focus in the coming months will be on whether Koizumi's tenure as party president, slated to end in a year's time, is to be extended. Attention will also be focused on who will be the next leader of the DPJ.
LDP Clinches Historic Victory, Biggest Since 1986
The LDP captured 219 seats in single-seat constituencies and 77 seats based on proportional representation, or 296 seats altogether, surpassing its pre-election strength of 212 by as many as 84 seats. While the figure was smaller than the 300 seats won by the LDP in the 1986 joint election of the upper and lower houses of the Diet held under then prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, it represents a larger percentage-61.7% versus 58.6% in 1986-of the total number of seats in the House of Representatives, thus constituting a historic victory.
This is the first time in 15 years that the LDP has gained more seats than needed (241) to achieve a simple majority in the House of Representatives. While the New Komeito retreated to 31 seats from the pre-election strength of 34, the ruling coalition captured 327 seats, more than two-thirds (320) of the total number of seats. With this, the coalition has gained the ability to re-submit and pass bills rejected by the House of Councillors. On the 12th Koizumi met with New Komeito Chief Representative Takenori Kanzaki to reconfirm the continuation of the ruling coalition.
The DPJ, meanwhile, secured 52 seats in single-seat constituencies and 61 seats based on proportional representation, or a total of only 113 seats-a whopping 64-seat loss from its pre-election strength of 177. The Japanese Communist Party maintained the status quo with nine seats, and the Social Democratic Party secured seven seats, two more than its pre-election strength. The People's New Party held fast to the four seats it had prior to the election, and the New Party Nippon retreated from three seats to just one.
In the Hiroshima No. 6 district, which had been a focus of national attention, Shizuka Kamei of the People's New Party was victorious while Takafumi Horie, president of Internet services firm Livedoor, suffered defeat. Kiyomi Tsujimoto (Social Democratic Party), who had previously resigned from the Diet due to scandals involving the misuse of state-funded secretaries' salaries, and Muneo Suzuki (New Party Daichi), sentenced to a prison term for bribery and other charges and currently in the process of appealing, were both re-elected based on proportional balloting. In the opposite direction, Kansei Nakano, DPJ member and former vice speaker of the House of Representatives; Hirohisa Fujii, acting president of DPJ; and Takako Doi, former speaker of the House of Representatives and leader of the Socialist Democratic Party, all failed to be elected.
A record 43 women were elected, surpassing the previous high of 39 registered 59 years ago, in 1946. Meanwhile, 133 newly-elected Representatives, or 28% of the total elected, are second- and third-generation (hereditary) Diet members. The average age of the incoming Representatives is 52.3 years, a slight drop from the average age of 53.1 years marked at the previous (2003) election.
The election, which has been full of attention-catching events, including the sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives, the LDP split, and Koizumi's "assassin" strategy of setting up opponents to candidates who had voted against the postal-service privatization bills, sparked the interest of unaffiliated voters. According to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on the 12th, voter turnout in single-seat districts was 67.51% (men: 66.80%, women: 68.81%), up 7.6 percentage points from the previous House of Representatives election held in 2003. It was the highest turnout registered in the four elections that have been held since the start of the combined system of single-seat constituencies and proportional representation.
Call Increases to Extend Koizumi's Term of Office
In the face of the LDP's sweeping victory, there has been rising talk of extending Koizumi's tenure as party president. In the evening of the 11th, the prime minister reiterated his resolve to step down when his term as LDP president expires, stating, "I will fulfill the responsibilities of my office up to the end of September next year, and there will be no [continuing] after that. I hope my successor will also promote reforms." Nevertheless, calls for extending his tenure are spreading within the LDP. "The Koizumi reforms must be carried out fully and completely. The question [of extending Koizumi's tenure] should be considered carefully," remarked LDP Secretary-General Tsutomu Takebe.
Meanwhile, New Komeito leader Kanzaki, at a press conference held on the 12th, said "I can understand that the prime minister's sense of rightness requires him to step down in September next year, but it would be better for him to take serious note of the people's expectations and continue as prime minister." In 1986, when the LDP achieved an overwhelming victory in a joint election of the upper and lower houses, LDP rules were amended to allow Nakasone to stay on an extra year as party president and, hence, prime minister.
After being reconfirmed as prime minister at the special session of the Diet slated for the 21st, Koizumi intends to inaugurate the third Koizumi Cabinet, keeping in place all the former members. He then plans to resubmit the postal-service privatization bills to the Diet for approval, followed by a Cabinet reshuffle and the appointment of new LDP executive officers. An increasing number of LDP Councillors who had been against postal-service privatization have switched to pro-privatization in the face of the stunning LDP victory in the latest election. In view of this development, the bills are seen to be certain to be passed.
The DPJ, meanwhile, convened an executive meeting at its headquarters in the afternoon of the 12th, following Okada's announcement of his intention to resign as party leader. It was decided at the meeting to hold a vote on the next party leader at a general meeting slated for September 17, which will be attended by DPJ members from both houses of the Diet. The DPJ is faced with a choice between a veteran lawmaker such as Ichiro Ozawa or Naoto Kan and a middle-ranking member such as Seiji Maehara or Yoshihiko Noda in a bid to rejuvenate the party leadership.
Koizumi's Political Strategy Leads to Success
On September 12 Japan's major dailies published editorials evaluating the September 11 election. Concerning the reason for the LDP's sweeping victory, the Yomiuri Shimbun pointed out, ". . . the 'Koizumi theater' strategy, which made postal privatization the sole campaign issue, turned out to be more successful than expected." The Sankei Shimbun analyzed, "A major factor was the prime minister's political strategy of dissolving [the Diet] in order to hear what the people had to say about postal-service privatization. Voters found refreshing and easy to understand Koizumi's assertion that the people should have the final say."
The Mainichi Shimbun stated, "Giving voters a real sense that they themselves are electing the prime minister was something new. . . . Prime Minister Koizumi's setting up the election as a kind of referendum on postal-service privatization, a concrete, albeit single, issue, also appeared novel to voters. . . . The general election, with its strong sense of 'elect the prime minister,' proved that a party leader's appeal to voters can be a decisive factor in that party's victory or defeat." Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) likewise noted, "Previously in Japan, House of Representatives elections were largely perceived to be for choosing local representatives. In this election, voters' perceptions changed dramatically toward the idea that the elections are for choosing the ruling party and that they in effect offer voters opportunities to elect the prime minister."
The Asahi Shimbun commented, "In many ways, Sunday's election had a 'presidential' ring to it in that the personal traits of the party leaders had a considerable influence on how voters cast their ballots. . . . The fact that a single issue was the defining feature of this election showed that democratic system can be risky and sometimes is an unusual process. . . . We cannot help feeling amazed that mood or momentum can have such a dramatic impact on election results."
Koizumi Cautioned Not to Be Overly Proud of Major Victory, Urged to Exert Efforts Toward True Reform
The major dailies in their editorials also cautioned Prime Minister Koizumi not to be overly proud of the great election victory and exhorted him to exert strong efforts to achieve true reform, tackling issues other than postal-service privatization as well. The newspapers also urged the badly-defeated DPJ to reconstruct itself and make a new start.
The Asahi remarked, "Koizumi also argued that reform of the postal system was only the first step. It is incumbent on the prime minister to demolish the antiquated structure of the Liberal Democratic Party. He must reconstruct public finances and sort out social security problems like pensions and medical expenditures. . . . Voters rely on him to chart a course for solving such problems."
The Mainichi observed, "The first post-election issue is to have the postal-service privatization bills passed by the upcoming special session of the Diet. . . . The right thing would be to rewrite the bills to incorporate the true objectives of privatization before submitting them to the Diet. It is irresponsible of the prime minister to avoid speaking of matters other than the postal-service issue. . . . He should immediately set forth the priority policy issues that he will tackle during his tenure. Now is the time when his true mettle as a reformer will be tested."
The Yomiuri commented, "But postal privatization is just one of the important issues in Japan's politics. . . . The most urgent task that Koizumi has to tackle in the immediate future is social security system reform, including reform of the public pension system. Fiscal rehabilitation also cannot be postponed. We also wonder how Koizumi will deal with diplomatic and national security issues, given the volatile international situation surrounding the nation. . . . Koizumi must do his best to deal quickly with such urgent issues."
The Sankei noted, "The question is how to resolve difficult issues on the domestic and international fronts. For this, it is necessary to resolve the postal-service privatization issue as soon as possible and put structural reform on track. . . . The difficult issues of domestic politics and foreign diplomacy cannot be surmounted without building a system that brings together all the resources of Japan. . . . Koizumi's task is to create a setup centering on the Cabinet Secretariat that allows the realization of national interests."
The Nikkei wrote, "[Koizumi] should make a strong drive toward structural reform, making bold decisions concerning not just postal-service privatization but also the triple reform of local government finances, the establishment of goals for a net reduction in national government employees, the reduction of medical costs, and the merging or elimination of government-affiliated financial institutions. . . . It is hoped that he will tackle structural reform with the kind of determination needed to really change Japan."
(Copyright 2005 Foreign Press Center Japan)
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